Special Weather Statement 06/03/2025 22:24 for areas

Corrected typos in the discussion. ...HEAVY DOWNPOURS, THUNDERSTORMS, GUSTY WINDS AND CHOPPY SEAS FROM MONSOON SURGE AND DEVELOPING DISTURBANCE EXPECTED THE REST OF THE WEEK... An unsettled weather pattern remains in store for Palau and Yap for the rest of the week, as a tropical disturbance attempts to form and consolidate well northwest of Yap and Palau, and a southwesterly monsoon surge settles over the area. Ensemble model guidance has been indicating a formation of a tropical disturbance in western Micronesia, that would then trek northwest and produce a monsoon surge along its southeastern peripheries as it exits the region. Satellite imagery showers shows a general zone of instability across Palau and Yap State, with a few minor westerly surges in the monsoon observed just southwest of Palau. Additionally, a tropical disturbance could form in western Yap State, that the deterministic GFS and ensemble GEFS latch onto for further development in the next 36 to 48 hours. While the feature remains largely disorganized and its formation continues to look delayed on satellite, the general trend in decreasing wind shear and buildup of localized moisture will allow the development of significant showers across Palau and Yap for much of the rest of the week once the feature moves into a more convectively favorable area. Due to the lackluster nature of the current stage of the monsoon and the aforementioned potential disturbance, variability in areas of convective development may produce periods of little to no weather followed by sporadic heavy showers and thunderstorms. In addition, high uncertainty remains regarding rainfall amounts, but the trend continues to indicate around 5 inches at Palau, and around 6 to 8 inches at Yap over the next 72 hours. At this time, landslides continue to be unlikely; however, if soils become saturated, any additional rainfall may quickly become runoff and increase mudslide risks, especially at Palau. While trade swells have weakened, localized wind waves and a developing southwest swell will produce choppy seas in Palau and Yap coastal waters over much of the week. Surf will continue to increase along south and west facing reefs of Palau and Yap, but are not likely to become hazardous at this time. Residents and mariners should monitor the latest forecasts for the region at weather.gov/gum/PublicForecasts and any information shared by WSO Palau and WSO Yap for their local regions.